Friday, January 20, 2017

China Buses 2016

Image result for electric buses in china


Electric Buses Sales in China


PlBrand2016 
1Yutong21.428
2BYD14.903
3Nanjing7.921
4Zuhai e)6.000
5Hunan3.410

e) Estimate


Ending a series of articles on China, i left the juiciest of them to the end, Electric Buses.

In the end of 2015, China had 170.000 of the 173.000 ebuses circulating in the World. That's right, 98% of them were in zooming in The Big Red Giant, which i think says it all about the role of that country on the change happening towards eMobility.

For more on how that came to be, please click here.

But, what about in 2016?

Just focusing on all-electric Buses, sales grew to 115.700 units in 2016, which represents some 20% market share, with Yutong still in the lead, followed by BYD and Nanjing.with the first growing 36% YoY and the second more than 50%.

With this kind of growth and market share, it is expected that China goes all-electric in this category in less than 10 years, maybe five, so it is no wonder that large cities like Shenzen are already envisioning an all-electric 15.000 fleet of Buses...In 2017.


Source: http://m.nev.ofweek.com/2017-01/ART-71011-8420-30092804.html

Portugal December 2016

Image result for Nissan Leaf no Porto


Nissan Leaf is the 2016 Best Seller 

EV Sales continue on the rise in Portugal, with sales in 2016 up 50% YoY to 1.970 units, with the EV Share ending at a record 0.95%, an important step above the 0.73% of 2015, with the total fleet of plug-ins now surpassing the 4.200 units.

For 2017, some 3.000 registrations are expected by year end, with the EV Share finally crossing north of the 1% barrier.

After a five year drought, the Nissan Leaf, by far Portugal's most popular EV (Over 700 units fleet) was crowned again with the Best Seller title, with 328 units (New all time record), after winning the title in 2010 and 2011. To have a notion of the leap made since then, the total number of registrations made in 2011 was 212 units, which is less than last month (233) alone...

After a close race between them, the remaining podium positions went for the Mercedes C350e (289 units), the new runner-up, earning the first Silver Medal for the Mercedes model anywhere in the World, with the Bronze medalist being the Outlander PHEV, the 2015 Best Seller, with 285 units, that despite losing the leadership, it actually increased YoY sales by 24% (And representing 60% of all Outlander sales). 

The BMW i3 benefited from a strong year end to post a record result, with 218 units, ending in #4, followed by the #5 V60 Plug-In, that after five years on the market, finally took off in Portugal, by registering 175 units, up four-fold, while representing 24% of all sales of the Volvo wagon. After years with this sales gem hidden somewhere, it seems the local Volvo importer finally discovered it...Well, better late than never, right?

The same can't be said about Renault, while the French brand is easily the Best Selling automotive brand in Portugal and having the European Best Selling EV in their lineup, one would think that the Renault Zoe would lead the EV movement here, right?

Wrong...In a case where 2+2=1, the Renault Zoe ended the year in Sixth, with 170 units, a personal best, but so far it has failed to reach a podium position since its introduction in 2013, a performance that pales when comparing with its European performance...Let's hope 2017 and the new ZE40 version spike sales up, but for that to happen we also need the local network of Renault dealerships to finally wake up to EV's and change the mindset of their sales force to actively sell their Zero-emission vehicles, instead of trying to detour potential customers to the Clio's they are running from.

Elsewhere, the #7 BMW 330e success (80 units and Rookie of the Year), underlines the growing importance of the company car segment (Mercedes C350e, Volvo V60...) in this market, thanks to the VAT benefits that companies enjoy. The Kia Soul EV finally took of in Portugal, hitting #11 and 31 units, this being another case of the local importer waking up late to EV's, let's hope sister brand Hyundai doesn't take also two years to realize the sales gem they have on the Hyundai Ioniq Electric...But by pricing the regular HEV Ioniq at Eur 33.056 (!), when in neighboring Spain the same model costs only Eur 19.600, it sure seems that way. Oh well, that will only make Portuguese buyers cross the border and buy in Spain...To the benefit of the Spanish Hyundai importer.

Finally, the Mercedes GLC350e landed with a bang in December, registering 10 units, so Mercedes might have here another podium contender for 2017.

In the manufacturers ranking, after a close race, BMW took the trophy for the first time, with 19% share, followed closely by Nissan (19%) and Mercedes (17%).

The BEV/PHEV breakdown shows plug-in hybrids winning the majority for the first time, with 53% share, 15% above the result of 2015 and a whole 44% above the share they had in 2013, when only 9% of the plug-in market was PHEV.

VAT benefits for companies, started in 2015, has helped to expand the plug-in market, let's just hope they do not fall in the Dutch and Belgian exaggerations, where some 80% of plug-ins are PHEV's and most of them are company cars where many end users just drive them as regular hybrids...  

Pl
Portugal
Dec.
2016
%
Pl '15
1
2
Nissan Leaf
Mercedes C350e
38
30
328
289
17
15
2
5
3Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV2328514
1
4BMW i3 *
24
218
11
3
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
13
13
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
23
25
25
Volvo V60 Plug-In
Renault Zoe
BMW 330e
Volkswagen Golf GTE
Renault Twizy
Volkswagen Passat GTE
Kia Soul EV
Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia
Volvo XC90 T8
Renault Kangoo ZE
BMW 225xe Active Tourer
BMW X5 40e
Tesla Model S
Volkswagen e-Golf
Mercedes B250e
Porsche Cayenne Plug-In
BMW i8
Mercedes GLC350e
Volkswagen e-Up!
BMW 740e
Peugeot iOn
Mercedes S500e
23
30
7
6
5
10
6
4
2
2

3

1
2
1
1
10
1



175
170
80
48
42
40
31
30
24
24
24
23
21
18
14
13
12
10
8
8
6
6
9
9
4
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
9
4
N/A
11
6
N/A
16
10
28
12
N/A
25
16
18
15
N/A
20
N/A
14
N/A
6
20
25
28
29
30
31
31
31
31
31
31
Tesla Model X  e)
Toyota Prius Plug-In
Audi A3 e-Tron
Citröen C-Zero
Audi Q7 e-Tron
Citröen Berlingo EV
Smart Fortwo ED
Peugeot Partner EV
Mitsubishi I-Miev
Mercedes GLE500e
3

1







6
5
4
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
N/A
8
18
12
N/A
30
22
28
23
N/A

TOTAL2331.970100

Source: ACAP

* - 18 BEV + 6 REX



e) Estimate

Plug-Ins Versus Regular Hybrids


PlModel2016 
1Toyota Auris Hybrid977
2Toyota Yaris Hybrid814
3Mercedes C300h410
4Nissan Leaf382
5Mercedes C350e289
  
If we combine regular hybrid 2016 sales with plug-ins, the usual two (Auris & Yaris) are in front, followed by the diesel HEV Mercedes C300h (A testimony for diesel still being popular here), with 410 units, while the all-electric Nissan Leaf ended the year not far behind (382) ,the PHEV version of the Merc C-Class, the C350e (289), and the Outlander PHEV (285) rounding up the top positions.


In fact, we would have to go to the Eighth spot to find another HEV, with the Toyota C-HR registering 190 units in just two months (Will this be the 2017 HEV Best Seller?), thus becoming the Fourth Best Selling HEV in Portugal, proving also that only Toyota and Mercedes actively market Hybrids here.


Thursday, January 19, 2017

China New Models - December 2016

This month we had four models landing in the Chinese EV market, we will skip the compliance Horki 300E and FAW Junpai A70E, focusing on the much more important BAIC EC180 and Haima @3 (Yes, no typo, it is "@3").


Image result for baic ec180
BAIC EC180 - Beijing Auto continues with their plan to leave BYD shadow and become a force to be reckoned with, by launching their first city car (Interestingly, a segment where BYD is absent...), the EC180, where pragmatically, "E" is for Electric, "C" for City, and "180", for the range it has. So, another 180 kms range electric city car. But here is where things get interesting, this is the first dedicated EV from Beijing Auto, the first of many, according to the brand, and also the first to have input from LeEco, a company known for its ambitious plans regarding eMobility. So, aside from the funky exterior, are we looking at a revolution in this class? No, it is one of the best, but the electric engine does a puny 40 hp and the interiors are not something worthy to write about, while a Chery EQ has better specs (56 hp, 200kms range). Still, the model has landed with a record 4.128 units, so it means BAIC is betting heavily on the car and hopes to make the Best Seller of 2017.






Haima @3 - While the Big Boys (BYD, BAIC, Geely...) are launching EV's as plan to ultimately conquer the World, smaller Chinese manufacturers like Haima have to change into plug-ins because the Government says so. Unfortunately, money is tight and it shows in their first EV models, hip name aside, the Haima @3 is a rehash of its M3 sedan (Think Toyota Corolla), with 95 hp, 120 kms max. speed and 200 kms range. And no fast-charging. With these below-average specs and uh...Distinctive looks, one would think it would be a slow seller, not so, as in its debut month in registered 381 units. Not BAIC EC180 earth-shattering numbers, but a respectable start for a model coming from a carmaker like Haima.

Wednesday, January 18, 2017

China December 2016


Image result for Geely Emgrand EV
Geely Emgrand EV


Newcomers Month

The Chinese market had 44.874 new EV's in December, far from the 60.000 expected by analysts, but still up 27% YoY, pulling the Plug-in Market Share to a record 1.45%, above the USA (0.9%) and Europe (1.3%).

Despite the “disappointing” plateauing in December, which a bit like expecting that Usain Bolt breaks the 0-100 meters World Record every time he goes on track, looking at the big picture, the 351.861 units registered in China during 2016 represent approximately 46% of ALL plug-ins sold worldwide this year, with Chinese carmakers responsible for 43% of all EV production in 2016.

To confirm the rising trend of the Big Red Giant, in 2013 China had only 6% of the worldwide plug-in production, since then it had increased share at a 11-12% yearly pace.

In December there were a number of fresh models shining, with the BAIC EC180 being the most impressive, reaching Second Place right on its landing month.

Here are last month Top 5 Best Selling models:

   
Image result for Geely Emgrand EV
#1 – Geely Emgrand EV: Geely, one of the largest car makers in China, owner of Volvo and LTI, the iconic Black Cab from London, joined this year the EV Bandwagon, by selling the Emgrand EV, an electric conversion of its successful middle-of-the-road sedan, and last month it was the most successful to date, with a massive 6.023 units, a new all-time record for a single model, allowing it to win for the first time the Best Seller status. With ok looks and good-but-not-outstanding specs (127 hp, 0-100kms/h in 9.9 seconds, 253 kms range from a 45 kWh Lithium battery), Geely is betting to make a good first entry into the market, stealing sales from BYD and BAIC sedans, while the more export-oriented Lynk & Co plug-ins do not arrive.


Image result for baic ec180
#2 – BAIC EC180: After being shown in last November, the BAIC EC180 has landed in the following month with a bang, registering 4.128 units, a new record for a debut month, this city car has the advantage of offering a rather appealing Crossoverized-look, good equipment features, Ok interiors and a usable range, with 180 kms. Is this enough to sustain the record figures registered in December? No one really knows, but BAIC has great ambitions for this platform, with more models coming and input from a certain LeEco company…
  

Image result for chery arrizo 7 phev specs
#3 – Chery Arrizo 7 PHEV: Another newcomer willing to stir the established players, the Arrizo 7 PHEV is Chery’s new product, having arrived just in October, it is already reaching the podium, thanks to 2.922 registrations last month. Sitting at the heart of the plug-in hybrid sedan market, with a starting price of 150k Yuan (20.500 euro), a 9.3 kWh battery and 50 kms electric range, this model wants to give the BYD Qin and SAIC’s e550 a run for the money and hopefully repeat this podium position in other occasions.


Image result for byd e6 specs 
#4 – BYD e6: Below all these newcomers we have the longest running plug-in in China, zooming the streets since 2010, the BYD e6, this model experienced a record year in 2016, thanks to some new impressive range specs, shaming everyone bar Tesla, with its 400 kms range coming from a 80 kWh battery. Popular among taxi-fleets, this model ended the year with 2.528 units in December.


Image result for byd e5 specs 
#5 – BYD e5: This plain-Jane sedan is on the rise, having beaten its monthly record, with 2.420 units delivered in December, starting to become a regular in this Top 5. Unlike the more show stopping BYD Qin EV300, the e5 feels more taxi-friendly regular looking but with basically the same specs as the all-electric Qin, 305 kms range included. A BYD for cost conscious (230k Yuan / 30k Euro) customers.



Year-to-Date Ranking – 100% BYD Podium


With over 70(!) models on sale, three of them landing last month, the Chinese EV market is by far the most dynamic on Earth, with plenty of surprises and changes.

Proof of this balance is the fact the BYD Tang, China’s Best Selling Plug-in in 2016, ended the year with 31.000 units, or just 9% of the plug-in market, the lowest share of any winner in the World. Also, it hasn’t won any Monthly Best Seller trophy since July…Despite this, it was a record year for the Chinese SUV, scoring 31.405 units, slightly below the 31.898 all-time record set by its BYD Qin relative in 2015, but enough to leave the same BYD Qin in Second Place this year, some 10.000 units behind.

But the real surprise this year was the Third Place of the veteran BYD e6, thanks to a strong Q4 (7.715 units), it climbed to Third Place for the first time since 2013, with a record 20.605 units, making it three BYD’s in the podium seats, a first.

Below we find two BAIC’s, the E-Series EV and the EU260, both had disappointing performances in December and were surpassed by the old fox BYD e6, while the Geely Emgrand EV jumped to #6 in December, leaving strong credentials for 2017. Will we see it run for the leadership?

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, the leader BYD lost 3% share, to 28%, but it was enough to win the Manufacturers title (Third in a row), to put three BYD’s in the podium, another in #9 and other in #14. Not bad, eh?

BAIC (12%) ended in Second Place and Zotye (11%) secured the Third Spot, ahead of SAIC, Chery and Zhidou, all with 6% share.

An always popular debate is Tesla’s performance in China, so here is a small tip on its performance, there was only some 100 Model S delivered in December, because that month was the first mass delivery of the Model X, with more than 1.000 units being registered that month.

As result, Tesla ended the year with 3% share, being the Best Selling foreign manufacturer, ahead of Porsche (1%).

Finally, looking at the breakdown between BEV’s and PHEV’s, unlike other markets where plug-in hybrids are winning the upper hand, all-electric cars just keep on improving share, ending the year at 76%, up 1% regarding November 2016 and 7% more than the result achieved in 2015.


Pl
China
Dec.
YTD
%
1
BYD Tang
1.510
31.405
9
2
BYD Qin
821
21.868
6
3
BYD e6
2.528
20.605
6
4
BAIC E-Series EV
227
18.814
5
5
6
7
8
BAIC EU260
Geely Emgrand EV
Zotye Cloud EV
Chery eQ
309
6.023
1.615
1.927
18.805
17.181
16.417
16.017
5
5
5
5
9
BYD e5
2.420
15.639
4
10
SAIC Roewe e550
620
15.145
4
11
Zotye E200
2.213
13.154
4
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Zhidou D1 EV
JMC E100
BYD Qin EV300
JAC I EV 4
Zhidou D2 EV
Tesla Model S  e)
Kandi K17 Cyclone
JAC I EV 5
Changan Eado EV
Others
491
921
519
1.407
1.347
108
758
1.088
504
17.518
11.201
10.823
10.656
10.453
9.091
7.548
6.862
4.971
4.839
70.367
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
21
TOTAL Market
44.874
351.861
100


 e) Estimate

Tuesday, January 17, 2017

Denmark December 2016



Renault Zoe 2016 Best Seller, Model X Rookie of the Year


The 320 units registered last month were the best result of the year, pulling the year tally to 1.438 units, which was still a 70% drop over last year and most importantly, less than 2014, when the market reached 1.642 units. 

Same story regarding the EV Share, the 0.65% of 2016 is way behind the 2.29% of 2015 and even 2014 was better, with 0.88%...Let's hope 2017 brings better news from this market.

The top two models concentrated 61% of sales, with the Renault Zoe winning without a sweat its First Best Seller award, with 612 units and 43% share, followed by the BMW i3 (252 units, 18%), while the Third Place was won by the Tesla Model X, a model received with open arms by the Danes, allowing it to be the Rookie of the Year and earn a podium seat.

Looking at the remaining models ranking, the two times Best Seller (2013 & 2014) Nissan Leaf jumped in December to Fourth, thanks to a year best performance of 57 registrations, displacing the Tesla Model S to #5.


In the Manufacturers ranking, Renault was the Best Seller (43%) thanks to the Zoe success, with BMW ending in a distant Second (18%) and Tesla in Third (12%), with the French carmaker winning its second title, after the 2012 win.

In this BEV-heavy market, PHEV's did some groundwork and grew to 11% share in 2016, up from just 3% in 2015.

Finally a mention to Fuel Cells, there were 16 FCEV's registered in 2016, significantly below the 30 units sold in the previous year, the soon-to-be-departed Hyundai ix35 FCEV still outsold the Toyota Mirai by 12 units to 4, despite the Japanese having better specs, it seems buyers prefer the normal look of the Hyundai.


PlDenmarkDec.     YTD%'15Pl
1Renault Zoe135612434
2
3
BMW i3 *
Tesla Model X
20
39
252
98
18
7
2
N/A
4
5
6
Nissan Leaf
Tesla Model S
Volkswagen e-Up!
57
20
13
85
78
62
6
5
4
5
1
8
7Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia **195843
8Mercedes C350e  
3027
8
Mercedes GLC350e   e)5302
N/A
10
11
12
13
14
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
Volvo XC90 T8
Volkswagen Passat GTE
Kia Soul EV
Volkswagen e-Golf

2
1
2
2
29
22
21
18
13
2
2
1
1
1
10
N/A
N/A
12
6
15Mercedes GLE500e281N/A
16
17
17
19
20
20
20
20
Mercedes S500e
BMW 225xe Active Tourer
BMW X5 40e
Peugeot Partner EV
Mercedes B250e
BMW i8
Renault Kangoo ZE
BMW 740e
2

1





6
5
5
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
N/A
N/A
N/A
17
9
16
14
N/A

TOTAL3201.438100

Source: www.bilimp.dk

* - 17 Bev +3 Rex
** - 10 Pass + 9 Lcv